Let’s hope that EU negotiators, preparing for the next round of negotiations on the UN Plastics Treaty, have studied the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton. In his paper, "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action" (1936), Merton applied a systematic analysis to the problem of unintended consequences of acts intended to promote social change. He popularised an idea that had been discussed by economists since John Locke first warned about it in 1692. This ‘law’ is likely to play out again if the Plastics Treaty, which enters its next round of negotiations on August 8th in Geneva, turns into a competition for votes between opposing blocks of countries.
The Treaty discussions have become an argument between the ‘High Ambition Coalition’ and leading oil exporting nations, about reducing the production of virgin plastic. The ‘petrostates’ plus the US, Russia and others see the Treaty as primarily concerned with waste management, as its main aim is to eliminate pollution. In contrast, the High Ambition Coalition, which includes Europe, insists that production of primary polymers from oil and gas must be reduced. Previous meetings have not produced a consensus, so WWF is calling for decisions to be reached by voting, in the belief that a more ambitious outcome will be achieved.
Europe in particular should be wary of voting for environmental measures that do not command universal support. Implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change has contributed to the ongoing de-industrialisation of Europe with ‘carbon leakage’ to countries with lower climate ambitions. It would only be a matter of time before ‘plastic leakage’ from Europe occurred, if the Plastics Treaty were to result in a majority decision to reduce primary production. To counteract the unintended consequences of the Paris Agreement, the EU is introducing the CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism) which is essentially a tax on embedded carbon in certain imports. By analogy, the CBAM would have to be extended to plastic and its products if companies reacted by moving their operations to countries that have not committed to capping production. This outcome should be avoided at all costs.
Reducing primary production would discourage plastic recycling, which the Treaty seeks to encourage. This is because both mechanical and chemical (advanced) recycling rely on adjacent primary plastic production facilities to be efficient. Mechanical recyclate is often blended with primary material to compensate for a deterioration in physical properties. And chemical recyclate is integrated into primary production facilities that use the partially processed plastic waste as raw materials. Lose the primary production plant and local recycling will suffer. So, the proposal that production should be capped and then reduced could cause exactly the type of unintended consequence described by economists and sociologists over the years.
Another problem is that plastic is overwhelming used in consumer goods, so the bigger a country’s population, the more waste plastic it will generate. Europe is a densely populated area that needs to keep its primary plastic production so it can process and recycle all of the packaging etc. its consumers use. Then there is the need to keep jobs and a meaningful chemicals industry, which are equally important. Of course, measures such as the incentivisation of refillable packaging and substitution by paper, glass and metal packaging will reduce demand, but these alone will not solve the problem of plastic pollution.
Instead, the High Ambition Coalition should shift the focus to recycling and require that a small but increasing proportion of recycled content be included in large volume plastic production. The recyclate could be either mechanical or chemical. Europe has already mandated this for PET bottles and is working towards it for other applications. The UN team could use EU regulation as a guide. Such a requirement would provide a market for recyclate, acting as an incentive for the collection and processing of waste. It will also reduce the demand for virgin plastic as businesses start to source recyclate.
Countries have already decided what they want out of the Plastics Treaty, but there is still room for compromise. The EU should consider firming up the warm words in the draft text about recycling, to require the mandatory inclusion of recycled content. Oh, and they should acquaint themselves with the works of Robert K. Merton before they leave for Geneva.
Published: 9 July 25
